Every month, we like to pull up a chair, pour a cup of coffee, and take a good look at what the Greater Phoenix real estate market actually did.

Not what everyone hoped it would do. Not what the headlines wanted it to do. Just the numbers, plain and simple.

For the monthly period ending June 15, the average sales price per square foot across the ARMLS database came in at $301.53. That is down just a touch from $302.79 the month before.

In other words, prices did not exactly fall off a cliff. They more or less took one small step back, looked around, and decided to stay pretty close to where they were.

The forecast for this period was also fairly accurate. The projected midpoint was $301.06, and the actual number came in at $301.53. That is only about 0.2% off, which is close enough that we will take it.

The Median Price Is Holding Steady

The median sales price has been surprisingly steady.

Right now, the monthly median sales price is $457,500, up from $450,000 last month and also up $7,500 from a year ago.

That tells us something important. Even though the overall market feels slower, and buyers are definitely being more careful, pricing has not shown any major weakness across the board.

Homes are still selling. Buyers are still buying. But they are doing it with a sharper pencil.

Pending Listings Are Pointing a Little Higher

Here is where things get interesting.

Pending listings as of June 15 had an average list price of $322.10 per square foot, which is up 1.4% from May 15.

That suggests closed prices could move higher over the next month. But as always, there is a little Arizona dust in the air, and visibility is not perfect.

One reason for the uncertainty is the ultra-luxury market. A few very high-end closings can move the average price per square foot more than people realize. So while the pending numbers are pointing up, we still need to watch what actually closes.

It would also be a bit unusual to see prices rise much heading into the third quarter. Seasonally, summer often brings a softer market. Buyers get distracted, vacations happen, and nobody loves touring homes when the steering wheel feels like a cast-iron skillet.

Distressed Sales Are Still Low, But Worth Watching

The market is still overwhelmingly made up of normal sales.

Among pending listings, about 96.4% are normal sales. REOs are around 1.4%, and pre-foreclosures are about 2.2%.

That is still low compared to historical levels, especially when looking back over the last 25 years. But pre-foreclosure activity has been slowly increasing, and that is worth keeping an eye on.

It does not mean the market is in trouble. It just means there are a few more cracks showing than we saw during the ultra-hot years when almost every seller seemed to have a stack of equity and three backup offers.

The Forecast for July

Looking ahead to July 15, the forecast midpoint for average monthly sales price per square foot is $307.78.

That would be up about 2.1% from the June 15 reading.

The expected range is $301.62 to $313.94, which gives us a reasonable window depending on how the next batch of closings shakes out.

So What Does This Mean?

For sellers, the message is pretty straightforward: pricing still matters. The market is not bad, but it is not forgiving either. Buyers are comparing condition, location, upgrades, concessions, and monthly payment very carefully.

For buyers, this is still a market where patience can help. There is more inventory than we had during the frenzy years, and sellers who are serious are usually willing to have a real conversation.

For everyone else, the big takeaway is this: the Greater Phoenix market is not racing, but it is not limping either. It is moving along at a slower, more thoughtful pace.

And honestly, after the wild ride of the last few years, a little boring might not be the worst thing in the world.